Monday, November 3, 2008

Post Election Rally


John McCain Wins: Policy Changes

-Lower taxation on capital gains: McCain is calling for a cut to the capital gains tax cut and an increase in the amount of stock losses that investors can deduct from their income.

-Lower taxation on 401k accounts: He would allow those over the age of 59 1/2 to withdraw up to $50,000 from a 401k account at lower tax rates than they might otherwise face.

-Small business incentives through tax relief to spur economy

-Lowered tax rate for corporations: McCain wants to lower the top corporate tax rate to 25% from 35%.

Result: Sustainable rally

Barack Obama Wins: Perceptual Changes

-Obama favoring media, such as NBC, CNN, Bloomberg, which portray a negative view on the economy, turns positive.

-Regardless of change in policy takes into effect or not, small businesses will benefit which will result in short term rallies, as consistent with the past.

-Obama in office will be viewed as a positive internationally, especially those regions in the Middle East and Europe.

-Obama supporting investors who are selling off the market buy back in post election.

Result: Duration of rally questionable, depending on Obama’s economic advisors.

Conclusion: There should be a rally regardless of whether McCain or Obama becomes the next US president.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good insights. Today's rally in the market chose to move on regardless off with old and in with the new.